We’ve seen an early draft of the political declaration which has apparently won support from some G77 countries including the Philippines and Indonesia. The EU has expressed concerns that the draft is too weak, but as yet have offered nothing to strengthen it.

Everything is still to play for, but splits in the G77 make a fair deal less likely. The draft discussed this morning does not include numbers on emission cuts and nor does it include real money – just a commitment to “mobilize the money”, which is likely to mean extension of loophole-ridden carbon markets, and might even lead to raiding of aid budgets.

Even so, extra adaptation money is restricted to three groups (Least Developed Countries, Small Island States and Africa), excluding many poor countries and millions of people from the help they need.

The draft makes only passing reference to a temperature goal, recognising scientific advice to keep below a 2degC rise, and completely ignores the truth – as revealed yesterday – that current pledges and structures have virtually no chance of delivering this.

And astonishingly, further analysis of the leaked text from the UNFCCC reveals that in comparison with business as usual, developing countries are offering greater aggregate cuts than the Annex 1 countries. Depending on the scenario the developing world is offing up to 25% more than the rich world. This cannot be described as climate justice.

And the draft political declaration opens the doors for extension of carbon markets and offsetting, even including forests in such a framework. So far, such approaches reduce real action in rich countries, and have delivered increased suffering in poor countries.

And the declaration seeks to blur the two tracks of negotiation, and delays any final decision on the next commitment period of the Kyoto protocol for up to a year – leaving a major risk of a gap after the end of the first commitment period. In turn this would mean less certainty for low-carbon investments.

At best this declaration can be interpreted as an admission of failure to deliver on the agreements made two years ago at Bali, and an extension of the ‘Bali road-map’ for another year.

Obama has just said that this Conference should go down in history, but if the US and other rich countries do not raise their commitments, it will go doen in history for all the wrong reasons.