This is very difficult and actually rather balanced: if the Saudis want to avoid agreement, and the Maldives want it, one would expect to support agreement. But similarly if the Tuvalese oppose agreement, and Australia support it, one would expect to oppose it.

If the agreement of this document would stimulates the rich world to adopt tough binding targets and elevated finance, then it may yet prove to have value. Agreement would put the ball firmly in the court of the rich world. Developing nations would have made massive concessions to accomodate the US in this process, on top of the huge climate debts they already bear. Before the talks reconvene the developed countries would have to move decisively to repay those debts if the process were to bear fruit.

Most importantly, regardless of what happens here, getting the KP track progressed urgently, is crucial. Money can be provided  voluntarily or – as far as I know – under existing Kyoto obligations.

I’ll be back later to let you know what happens with the other decisions the Plenary should make.

08.01 UK moves an adjournment.

08.00 President sees opposition – the paper cannot be adopted. Can’t either circulate the paper for countries to subscribe to it.

07.59 UK – want those wishing to register reservations to be recognised. So they are pushing the whole thing on the back of the cash.

07.56 President: Regulations are that decisions are by consensus. Two options: no adoption; or flexibility to adopt it without those objecting or abstaining [but it would appear that do that would require consensus]. Asks UK to confirm proposal.

07.55 UK point of order – two decisions in the document in paras 9 & 10 (on finance) need to be made operational.

07.52 Maldives appeal to keep thedocument alive.

07.48 Bolivia on process – no one opposed the proposal that document becomes a Misc document listing the 25 supporting countries, and bring foward all the papers to future meetings.

07.46 Saudi on process: can’t agree by consensus, when no consensus, so UK can’t propose this, and President can’t accept it. Won’t establish new ways of working today and here.

07.46 Nicaragua on process: Presidency must respect the agreements and nature of the document. Cannot agree with changing the agreement.

This is outrageous – this is a consensus process. How can this be a feasible way forward. Is it legitimate?

07.42 Point of order from UK. Reiterate request of Slovenia – to turn into draft decision while giving ‘proper recognition to objectors’.

Still waiting for Chair to decide on how this session will make a resolution.

07.35 Saudi Arabia – has been going for 48 hours continuously – this is worst plenary I’ve ever attended: poor exchanges, management, timings. Invited into accord group. Worked constructively. Paper takes us forward. Reactions are as strong as if this was to be legally binding. We have – unfortunately – no consensus, and won’t get it however long we talk. Time to accept the situation, and find procedural ways forward.

07.35 Lesotho – LDCs group supports the accord.

07.23 Sudan – we have important decisions to take. There are ways to reach solutions, openly and transparency. Concerns about poor process in the second week of the COP – lost time in the processes. Three issues were taken out of the working groups: finance among them. Poor governance of finance. Way forward lies in extending mandate of working groups.

07.12 Venezuala want declaration to go down in records of the meeting. 25 countries of 192 participated: 14 developing countries of 130. Parties never gave Presidency a mandate to pursue that process, and not even for Friends of the Chair of the LCA track. Was a mandate for friends of the KP chair which delivered nothing. Formal groups did not agree on market mechanisms, but this group of 25 did. Group of 25 met at times that had been reserved for other working groups. The text has no figures that clearly determine what countries will do to cut emissions. Financial offer is dwarfed by the expenditure of the world on weapons and war. Backs 1.5degC, and 350ppm. We are like children cramming overnight for an exam – we will make mistakes. Need to tackle our disagreements of principle. This discussion is sterile. We need to progress. Only had document for 4 hours, started at 3am, because some countries were holding celebratory press briefings on a document we hadn’t even had. OUr principles do not have a price tag.

07.10 Brazil calls on all parties to maintain dialogue and understanding. Must be frank but respectful. Participated in Accord group in good faith. Now is time to act. Respect opinions of those who disagree, but this proposal demands action. Need concrete proposals of action.

07.09 Ghana supports this document and the commitment of world leaders. Wish to accept offer of quick-start fund. Concrete proposals on finance, technology are important. Support UK proposal to adopt as decision.

07.08 Chair awaiting legal advice on the Slovenian proposal.

07.02 Tuvalu (again) We are all tired and emotional. Shouldn’t get into blame game. Appreciate the value of document – but it has significant flaws that could affect the future of Tuvalu. Faced policial constraints imposed by other countries coming into these talks. Should progress KP and LCA tracks to address these flaws, while considering the document as a ‘Misc’ document. Please don’t jeopardise our future.

07.01 Belize – Accord is a basis to move forward.

06.58 Barbados supports the position of Grenada, that this was a transparent and open process. A well functioning multilateral process is our only protection. Can’t afford for the process to break down in political point-scoring.

06.53 Gabon was in the working group, with one ambition, to give the dynamic process a chance. Wants to find a compromise. Sees wealth in its ‘responsibly managed forests’. Should continue to have wide discussion.

06.47 Algeria – says the African group received this draft and supports it, even though they believe it can be improved

06.46 Singapore believes Accord group was representative, and supports sentiment and commitment. Want to resolve disagreement through compromise.

06.43 The Marshall Islands. Their fundamental right as a people to exist is at stake. Will leave Denmark with a sense of loss and sadness. MI one of biggest losers in this exercise. Nothing to show grandchildren for this absence from home.

06.36 Bolivia calls for 6% of GDP for adaptation funds. Object to lack of consultation and short period to assess Accord. Support view that the paper should remain ‘for discussion’.

06.34 Phillipines wants to see the substance filled in within 6 months. Supports 1.5degC target.

06.30 Russia backs the Accord

06.29 Norway says we can’t describe the finance as a bribe, else rich world tax-payers won’t stump up the cash.

06.20 Papua New Guinea ‘supports this document even if it is flawed’

06.19 Japan too presents itself as speaking for the most vulnerable.

06.10 Grenada – chair of AOSIS was asked to join in the accord group, with Maldives, Bangladesh, Lesotho, Algeria, Ethiopia and many others supported by the Secretary General of the UN. Regrets current division. Process was sincere. Didn’t get everything we fought for. Want the major parties to follow through with their comitments. Appeals to Sudan to reconsider.

06.08 Mexico says the paper was prepared in good faith. Calls on Sudan to withdraw offensive remarks.

06.08 Slovenia suggests the paper could be adopted with a footnote indicating which countries opposed it.

06.02 Four countries waiting to speak indicate that they oppose the UK proposal.

05.57 Ed Miliband speaks for the UK: there are now two roads – that set out in the ‘accord’, which will make substantive differences because of its financial backing. Accept this and start money flowing. Otherwise take the Sudanese choice of wrecking the conference. Passing this document ‘for information’ is not enough. Need a COP decision to get money flowing.

No surprise after their deal with France earlier in the week

05.51 Ethiopia ‘fully backs the document’

It’s sadly ironic to hear major emitters like Australia claiming to be acting in the interests of the the ‘most vulnerable’

05.49 Australia also defends the document and attacks Sudan. Claims to be supporting Maldives.

05.47 Spain rejects the inputs of Sudan. Asks for remarks on Holocaust to be withdrawn.

05.46 Egypt wants to see relevant names of countries on the document to be transparent on who was involved.

05.38 The Maldives PM speaks. ‘We do not need to go on about the impacts. Commends the Danish President. Fears the talks going the way of the WTO. Need action in the next seven years. Previous talks were not taking us to fruitful conclusion. Here the group of 26 countries has advanced. Big emitters are still blocking ambition of 1.5degC. Sorry that 1.5 was blatantly obstructed by big emitting countries. Still this document is a step in the right direction – even if unsatisfactory. Allows for a legally binding agreement within 2010.

05.33 Sudan weighs in: ‘this document threatens the lives of millions’. 2degC will result in gross violation of the right to exist of Africans. It condemns Africa to 3.5degC of warming. I cannot ask Africa to sign a suicide pact.’ He compares the impacts to the Holocaust. ‘No African leader has a mandate to aid and abet the destructions of Africa’. Applause. Wants to put on record that the President has been ‘biased, and violated all the rules of procedure’.

05.28 They’re off again – and the Chair appears to be accepting Nicaragua’s proposals, but India objects to having the document recategorised.

05.05 They are bogged down in procedural questions, as the Chair consults advisors

04.59 The Plenary has resumed after the suspension triggered by Nicaragua’s procedural proposals. The President suggests the Accord should be reissued as ‘INF’ documents (reports of the working groups) – but Nicaragua says they should be ‘MISC’ documents (submissions for one or more parties) instead.

03.51 Back on line, andwe learn that Tuvalu, Nicaragua, Venezuala, Cuba, Costa Rica and Bolivia all spoke out against the US-led accord, in a fairly chaotic session. The other draft decisions have been tabled, and the session temporaily suspended.

The reactions have been strong: Tuvalu cited the Bible – we will not betray our people for 30 pieces of silver; while the Venezualan delegate cut her hand, to show that ‘we too bleed’.

02.58 No action from the Bella Centre, and we’re being evicted again. I’ll post again in the morning, if not before.

02.42 More or less all that’s left now is a plenary to discuss the draft Accord – and we still don’t know if the G77 will stand firm and reject this sham, or fold under the intense pressure from rich countries. Apparently however although this venue was organised by the UNFCCC, it will close at 3am, regardless of whether events in the Bella Centre have concluded. If everything goes quiet here, you’ll know we’ve had to go in search of another internet connection.

02.33 Another asks whether it worked for the EU to keep the 30% pledge conditional, and if there was any dissent from this. The EU acknowledges that others haven’t responded – there has been a fight not to lower the target. So the EU is keeping the same approach.

02.22 A journalist asks if the pledges on cuts will actually deliver 2degC … The EU says 2degC will need 25-40% from developed countries but it’s no more than 18% now. So the US in particular must do more before 2020.

02.17 EU has decided to support the Accord, because it would have been “disruptive “not to, and they got various amendments accepted.

02.15 There’s a EU press conference going on. In the interim some of the less contentious COP decisions have been made in Plenary. They have set deadlines for June 2010 for the KP and LCA negotiations to conclude, working with the partly developed texts from Copenhagen, in Geneva.

02.13 Apologies for radio silence – due to internet failure. Now at the alternative venue – apparently available to us until 3am

00.45 Gordon Brown is backing the Accord – when he should be rejecting it, and declaring a unilateral step for the UK to a 42% target.

00.43 Anyone remember the Delhi Ministerial Declaration from 2001? No? Apparently that is the last time a COP adopted a political declaration without unanimity amongst the Parties. Didn’t it achieve a lot?

00.30 Delegates are now gathering for the Plenary. The G77 are giving a press conference, but we can’t view it online – we are waiting for reports from the inside team – who must be fit to drop by now.

00.22 Intelligence from inside suggests the EU and Japan have come behind the draft, but Brazil, Russia, Sudan and several other developing countries are likely to reject it.

00.15 Rumours are spreading that the EU might not agree this accord, although no-one can identify which countries are against it, and a couple of our team have intelligence that their country delegations support it.

00.12 Young FoE activists are gathering outside the Bella Centre for a climate vigil.

00.03 NOAH – Friends of the Earth Denmark are describing Obama’s speech as ‘the audacity of hype’ …

00.02 And the US financial commitment is hidden at the very end, just $3.6bn over three years – only one third of the level committed by the EU or by Japan.

23.58 There is more dodgy stuff buried in the text. Promotion of market mechanisms – responsible for loopholes in the current system, finance that is not all additional and public, and text intended to allow adaptation support to go to oil producing countries that can’t sell their oil!

23.51 The risk is that the Parties will go straight from failure to recriminations and blame, rather than stepping back from the brink with bold leadership in the Scottish model. The EU press conference is still awaited: they could still pull something out of the hat, but it seems unlikely as it stands.

23.44 The accord is toothless. It’s a COP-out. There are no targets apart from 2degC, and the numbers in the annex add up to just a 13-19% cut for the rich countries. This is no more than the scale of the loopholes in the current system. One reason for making these voluntary is that it disguises the scale of the failure of rich countries – including the EU – to step up to the plate.

23.38 A great description of what happened earlier: the US announcement was like Fox News ‘calling the 2000 US election’ – the real results weren’t in, but they decided the outcome and the story, and it didn’t matter what happened later.

23.35 The other bad news in the draft accord is that the provisions on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) are very weak – even seeming to open the door to financing plantations, which can have devastating impacts on livelihoods and human rights in developing countries. The door is also wide open for funding REDD via carbon markets.

23.33 The good news is that if the KP working group report is adopted it preserves the Protocol and says the Parties are “determined to ensure there is no gap between the first and second commitment periods”.

23.28 We have no idea of the status of this draft accord, but it’s not much of an agreement. It firmly endorses the aim of holding temperature below 2degC – but even the weak reference to looking at 1.5degC in a 2016 review has been axed. That means this is very bad news for Africa.

23.25 The texts circulating include a draft accord complete with voluntary pledges, and mandates for continuation of both the Kyoto Protocol and Long-term cooperative action working groups.

23.12 The EU has postponed its press conference. The Plenary has yet to start. The text may be a draft COP decision based on the accord text circulated earlier.

23.02 Confusion reigns – apparently there is yet another text circulating – another version of the accord. The plenary is due to start, and the EU is supposed to be holding a press conference.

23.00 The rest of the G77 are already meeting – and apparently just one objection could prevent this becoming a COP decision.

22.52 Obama admits there is not even a complete text yet to go to a vote in the Plenary at 11pm. This implies they want to turn it into a COP decision, like the Bali Roadmap. That would be worse than this being a political declaration.

22.49 Obama says that his ‘non-binding’ approach will deliver more action than the legally binding approach of Kyoto. But just in case, he will be seeking more binding approaches in the future.

As far as China is concerned it might be ther removal of the 2050 global target language from the text – which they fear would be a cap on their economic development.

22.47 We are trying to work out what is in the actual text of this ‘outcome’ that has brought developing countries on board – though maybe China, India and South Africa will not be able to bring the rest of Africa, Asia and Latin America with them.

22.45 I’ve never heart Obama sound so tired and halting – he has been working hard – but this is no triumph

22.37 Face saving for the US because poor countries will have to offer up voluntary targets too. This sounds like the death knell of Kyoto.

22.35 Obama is speaking: he says countries will subsequently make commitments. They won’t be binding. And they won’t lead to safe temperature levels. We already know that. What was the point of this conference? Surely it was supposed to negotiate national commitments.

22.28 We still have no text yet the world’s media ia already repeating the US spin that this is a meaningful deal

22.21 Apparently the Chinese have conceded on the issues of verification as part of the ‘outcome’.

22.20 The list of countries is fairly worrying: they are all big coal users.

22.18 The latest news is that a group of Parties including the US, China, India, South Africa have put a new text on the table. It’s not even the weak accord that has been under frenzied negotiation all day.People are beginning to call it a ‘sham deal’.

I’ll be updating this blog live until we know what the “outcome” is and what it means.

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